Some people get excited about the Superbowl. I get excited about the Oscars.
Which means this weekend, is one of my favorite weekends of the year without a doubt. Sunday night will find me curled up on the couch, Moleskin notebook open, iphone charged for live-texting, Macbook ready for live-blogging and live-tweeting.
It’s a serious, serious endeavour. Trust me.
This year – I think the stakes are higher than they’ve ever been. There’s been SO much buzz about who will bring the golden statues home. A week ago, my predictions would have been entirely different. But the playing field has changed. Anything could happen.
And then of course, there is the extremely reliable prediction of Jimmy Fallon’s puppies – who predict Argo will take home the award for Best Picture.
I mean. Trust the puppies.
But this is my blog and you obviously came here to hear what I have to say about the Oscars. Right? Which is why I’m going to give you my top five predictions. And if you use my predictions to bet on the Oscars and win all the money, well – I’ll gladly send you my address to send some my way, cool?
my oscar predictions
1. Best Supporting Actress
Adam Adams, The Master.
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
MY PREDICTION: Anne Hathaway
I think this one is in the bag but then again – the Academy can be unpredictable so there’s still a slight possibility that Sally Field could take this. I think this year’s award show could be swept by Lincoln. It’s perfectly positioned as an Academy favorite and Sally would be no exception. That said, Anne took home the Globe and the SAG. I think she’s got this in the bag. HaHa. That rhymed. Go me.
2. Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
MY PREDICTION: Tommy Lee Jones
While I really really really want Christoph Waltz to win this and he won the Globe for it - I have the sneaking suspicion Tommy Lee Jones may take this. Again, because I have a theory that Lincoln may sweep the Oscars this year. I’d love to see Alan Arkin take it. Or Robert De Niro. Christoph would be my choice. But I think the award is going to Grumpy Cat. I mean Tommy Lee.
3. Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight
MY PREDICTION: Daniel Day Lewis
Daniel has this in the bag. Again, he won the Globe. He won the SAG. Lincoln is set to be an Academy favorite. I’d challenge the Oscars to blow my mind and award the Oscar to one of the other four (I thought Denzel was INCREDIBLE in Flight – absolutely amazing) but I think this one will be the least predictable award of the evening.
4. Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
MY PREDICTION: Jennifer Lawrence
Before anyone attacks me on this one, here’s why I think Jennifer has this in the bag. And it has nothing to do with the fact that I’m a huge Jennifer fan. If you had asked me before the SAGs who was going to win this – I’d have bet my life savings on Jessica Chastain. But ever since Jennifer won the Globe AND the SAG – I have the sneaking suspicion she will take home the Oscar. Do I think she deserves it? Not yet. I LOVED Silver Linings Playbook. It was one of my favorite movies of the year. That said – I don’t think her role as Tiffany is the Oscar deserving one.
BUT she’s got Harvey Weinstein backing her. And Harvey kills people to get what he wants. So there’s that.
Will I scream in excitement if she wins? Duh. LOVE that girl. But I truly think Jessica deserves it. Thing is, with the dark cloud Zero Dark Thirty has cast over the Academy, it’s rumored half the Academy are outraged with it, I fear she won’t take it home. If she does? I’ll also be screaming. If it’s not one of the J girls – Emmanuelle Riva.
In short? This award will be the second most intense of the night. It could really go any way. Pour a glass of wine prior, ok?
5. Best Picture aka Heart Fail Time
Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Life of Pi,
Silver Linings Playbook,
Zero Dark Thirty
MY PREDICTION: Lincoln. No Argo. No Lincoln. NO ARGO! I DONT EVEN KNOW.
Here is where my issue lay. Two weeks ago, I would have said Lincoln hands down. My justification on this matter was this. 1. Lincoln is totally an Academy favorite. I’ve said this several times above. 2. Ben Affleck got snubbed for Best Director. Even though he has since gone on to win all the awards in the world for Argo everywhere else. Including Best Director and Best Picture at the Globes and Best Picture at the SAGs.
Ben Affleck is OWNING IT.
But, two weeks ago, I would have argued this. I don’t think the Academy will choose a Best Picture winner that doesn’t have its director nominated for Best Director. How can you have a Best Picture but not think the director is worthy of being nominated for Best Director. Think about it.
I think that’s you Ben. Just sayin.
But everyone – I mean EVERYONE is talking about Argo. I’m starting to think, while Lincoln is the obvious choice for the Academy – to save face and subtly admit, yeah, we f%&cked up not recognizing Ben Affleck, we’re going to give Argo Best Picture.
What would blow my mind? If Zero Dark Thirty or Silver Linings Playbook took it instead. But I loved Argo – I will gladly accept a win for them. And then Ben can be all, “Argo Go F@&k yourself Academy – but thanks!”
Who do you think will win? Who do you want to win?
I will be live blogging the red carpet and show here on the blog – come back for all things Oscars and remember to refresh lot’s! Thanks to the Globes and the SAGS, I’ve got the live-blogging down to a science and have the winners up within three minutes of it happening.
I’m hardcore like that.
Oh and if you have no idea what any of the nominated movies are about? Don’t worry. These kids have your back.
Until then – see you all Sunday and have fun shopping for Oscar snacks!
x C x